智库报告索引 · 8月1日—8月10日

中国军事与科技竞争 · 8月3日

Flipping the Script: How to Hold China's New Carriers at Risk

分析如何利用不对称手段威慑中国新型航母战斗群，提出"以小博大"的海上拒止策略；附PDF报告

中国军事与科技竞争 · 8月3日

Tokenpolitik: How the United States Can Compete with China to Build the Global AI Stack

提出美国应通过区块链代币化技术建立新的金融基础设施竞争力，与中国数字人民币抗衡

AI治理与安全 · 8月3日

Toward a Federal Framework: Lessons from State and International Frontier AI Regulation

联邦AI治理框架应吸取各州与国际经验，提出分层监管路径；附PDF报告

8月3日

The Role of Regional Networks in Twenty-First-Century Industrial Policy

关税与贸易战 · 8月3日

Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs: Sections 338 & 301 and the Russia Sanctions Bill

深度解析338条款（歧视性关税）与301条款（不公平贸易）的最新使用动态，以及俄罗斯制裁法案的贸易影响

太空与通信 · 8月3日

Injecting the Free Market into Spectrum Use for Space Applications: Audio Brief with Clayton Swope

太空频谱资源应引入市场机制分配，打破行政审批低效

中国军事与科技竞争 · 8月4日

The Visibility Gap: How AI Can Stop Chinese Transshipment Under USMCA

AI可识别中国通过第三国转运规避关税的行为，缩小执法"可见度差距"

8月4日

A Deep Dive Into IVOs with Fathom's Bri Treece

8月5日

The Battle for Hormuz Will Reshape the Global LNG Market

霍尔木兹海峡冲突将彻底改变全球液化天然气市场格局，亚洲买家首当其冲；附PDF报告

中东与能源安全 · 8月5日

Rethinking Water as a Frontline Security Risk

水资源正从"软安全"议题升级为前线军事风险，跨界河流争端加剧

AI治理与安全 · 8月6日

The End of "As-Is": Could AI Undermine Software's U.S. Legal Shield?

AI生成代码可能动摇软件"现状免责"法律框架，开源软件知识产权面临重构

太空与通信 · 8月6日

Bridging the Gap: LEO Satellite Internet and Human Rights

低轨卫星互联网是人权赋能工具，但数字鸿沟扩大风险需警惕

AI治理与安全 · 8月6日

Three More AI Hacking Incidents, and a Push to 'Pace the Frontier'

新增3起AI黑客攻击事件，前沿AI安全需要"节奏前线"（Pace the Front Line）策略

中国军事与科技竞争 · 8月6日

Old Friends, New Calculations: A Reset in China-North Korea Relations

中朝关系出现微妙重置，北京在朝俄走近与自身地缘利益间寻求新平衡

中国军事与科技竞争 · 8月6日

The Latest on Southeast Asia: Electoral Woes for Anwar's Coalition

安瓦尔执政联盟在马来西亚州选中受挫，东南亚民主退潮与中国影响力扩张并行

8月6日

Pacific Airwaves - Missile Tests and Mutual Defense

关税与贸易战 · 8月7日

Brussels vs. Brussels: The EU's Data Act and the DMA's Clash Over Cloud

欧盟内部《数据法》与《数字市场法》产生监管冲突，跨大西洋科技贸易面临新不确定性

卡内基国际和平基金会4 篇

中东冲突扩大化 · 8月3日

The Drone Attack on Egypt and the Widening Middle East War

无人机攻击埃及标志中东战争扩大化，以色列-伊朗代理人冲突外溢至新前线；埃及从调停者变为被攻击方，地区平衡被打破

AI与组织变革 · 8月5日

Mission over Model: What Might AI Mean for an Organization Like Carnegie?

Carnegie旗舰长文：AI对组织的意义不在于"用什么模型"，而在于"完成什么使命"；提出"使命优先于模型"框架：组织应从任务分解出发评估AI应用，而非从技术能力出发

中东冲突扩大化 · 8月6日

The Migration Wave That Embarrassed Morocco and Rattled Europe

移民潮让摩洛哥尴尬，西摩争端重新点燃——欧洲移民危机的新前线

中等强国与全球秩序 · 8月6日

How Populist Middle Powers Are—and Are Not—Reshaping Global Politics

民粹主义中等强国（印度、土耳其、巴西等）如何重塑——又不重塑——全球秩序；这些国家既不追随美国也不倒向中国，而是在议题层面灵活结盟

美国外交关系协会16 篇

东亚地缘 · 8月9日

The 1964 Gulf of Tonkin Resolution

北部湾事件60周年回顾：国会未经调查即授权总统对越动武

贸易与供应链 · 8月6日

How Spain's Migration Surge Tested EU Border Policy

西班牙北非飞地移民潮测试欧盟新移民协议，暴露边境政策裂缝

8月6日

On August 6, 1945, the United States dropped the Little Boy atomic bomb on Hiroshima, Japan. That first-ever use of an atomic weapon killed an estimated 140,000 people, most of whom were civilians. Three days later, the United States dropped an atomic bomb on Nagasaki. Some 40,000 people, again most

美元与货币体系 · 8月5日

Big Macs Say the Dollar is Way Overvalued. iPad Minis Say It's Not so.

巨无霸指数显示美元严重高估，iPad指数显示美元略低估——商品类型决定购买力平价判断

8月5日

How I Got My Career in Foreign Policy: Margaret Brennan

Margaret Brennan spent her career covering everything from geopolitics to economics, before becoming the second woman ever to moderate Face the Nation. She spoke to CFR about the connection between finance and foreign policy reporting, her advice for young journalists, and an unforgettable assignmen

货币政策 · 8月5日

Global Monetary Policy Tracker

CFR全球货币政策追踪器：54国数据显示全球货币政策分化加剧

美元与货币体系 · 8月5日

The Dollar Boomerang Threat: Washington's Motivations to Support the Yen

美日联合干预支撑日元，真实动机是保护美国国债市场——"美元回旋镖威胁"；美国支持强势日元 = 防止日本抛售美债 = 保护美元体系

东亚地缘 · 8月4日

ASEAN, Still Toothless, Is Losing Its Faith in the U.S.

东盟外长会议暴露ASEAN"无牙"本质，东南亚对美国信心流失

东亚地缘 · 8月4日

Why the U.S. Intervened to Prop Up Japan's Yen

美日十年首次联合汇率干预：日元跌至40年低点触发行动

美国国内政治 · 8月4日

Why the Fed's Published Inflation Forecasts Are Meaningless—Or Worse

美联储发布的通胀预测在一年后趋同于随机游走——实际无信息含量

贸易与供应链 · 8月4日

America's Drug Supply Chain

Rush Doshi参议院证词：美国药品供应链出现"稀土问题"——关键药物原料依赖中国

8月4日

The Gulf of Tonkin Incident

The attack on a U.S. destroyer off the coast of North Vietnam that deepened U.S. involvement in Vietnam never happened and opened up a credibility gap in U.S. foreign policy.

8月4日

Spillover Summer Reading: The Best Books on Forecasting, Silicon Valley, and the Future

In this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby swap summer reading recommendations, including fiction and nonfiction picks covering American thinkers’ predictions for the twentieth century, an Irish murder mystery, and a Stanford student’s exposé on Silicon Valley venture

美国国内政治 · 8月3日

Voters Worry About Election Integrity

盖洛普民调：美国选民担忧11月大选公正性

美元与货币体系 · 8月2日

The World Should Not Ignore China's Undervalued Currency

弱人民币直接导致中国最新出口繁荣，更强的人民币是唯一现实药方；延续7月"人民币霍尔木兹天花板"主题，但角度从储备货币转向汇率操纵

英国皇家国际事务研究所6 篇

AI泡沫与全球治理 · 8月7日

Is the AI boom about to bust?

主持人Bronwen Maddox与Alex Krasodomski、James Kynge、Creon Butler讨论AI投资泡沫是否即将破裂；与GS的"AI投资超1万亿"形成直接对立：高盛看多投资规模，Chatham House质疑可持续性

贸易与关税 · 8月7日

Trump's summer of tariffs means trade uncertainty is here to stay

作者Heather Hurlburt：特朗普夏季关税意味着贸易不确定性"长期化"；从"解放日"到301条款，加拿大/巴西/欧盟/中国均受影响

AI泡沫与全球治理 · 8月7日

Can the UN close the global AI gap?

联合国能否缩小全球AI鸿沟——AI治理的多边主义路径；提出"对话的对话"（Dialogue of Dialogues）框架：不是建立一个全球AI监管机构，而是协调现有多个治理倡议

中东地缘 · 8月5日

Saudi Arabia still views the US as its main strategic partner – despite Trump's nuclear agreement conditions

尽管特朗普核协议条件苛刻，沙特仍视美国为主要战略伙伴；"主要"不等于"唯一"——沙特在核谈判中寻求自主空间

非洲公共卫生 · 8月5日

Africa Aware: DRC's Ebola outbreak: Local systems, international responses and lessons for Africa

刚果（金）埃博拉疫情：地方系统应对能力与国际响应；嘉宾Dr Rachel Niehuus和Bienvenu Mukungilwa

中东地缘 · 8月3日

By agreeing to disarm, Hamas is trying to call Israel's bluff in Gaza

作者Julie Norman：哈马斯同意解除武装是在"叫以色列的牌"——战术性让步；短期内变化不太可能，外部压力是关键变量

兰德公司20 篇

8月6日

China's Retirement Reform and the 2035 Statutory Working-Age Window: Buying Time amid Demographic Decline and AI-Driven Change

China’s 2025 reform raises some of the world’s lowest retirement ages. A birth-cohort simulation estimates that the reform holds the statutory working-age population roughly flat through the mid-2030s, keeping 48 million more people below retirement thresholds in 2035 and peaking near 67 million in

AI安全与应急管理 · 8月6日

Interpreting Dual-Use Biology Benchmarks for Frontier AI: Measurement, Saturation, and Generational Analysis

前沿AI模型的生物安全双用途基准测试：如何评估AI被用于生物武器研发的风险

国防与军事后勤 · 8月5日

A Portfolio Assessment Approach to Inform Resource Allocation Decisions

美国国防部跨领域组合投资评估方法：那些间接支持多任务的领域往往资金不足

8月5日

Public Benefits Are a Hidden Engine of College Completion

When Congress tightened work requirements for federal benefit programs in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last summer, the rationale was familiar: Benefits should be a pathway to self-sufficiency. Get people into a job, the logic goes, and the rest follows.

AI安全与应急管理 · 8月5日

Can AI Change How We Deal with Disasters?

RAND旗舰报告：灾害频率和严重程度上升，AI可在预测、资源调配、恢复评估全链条提升应急效率；但AI系统的可信度、数据偏见、训练成本是主要障碍

AI安全与应急管理 · 8月4日

AI and the Future of Emergency Management: Market Supply and Adoption Pathways

AI应急管理市场供需分析：供给侧以大型科技公司主导，需求侧地方政府缺乏采购能力

8月4日

Having Trouble Finding Good Workers? They're Right Under Your Nose

Many businesses are looking to hire,and myths about people who have criminal convictions can prevent hiring managers from tapping a big pool of productive, trustworthy workers.

8月4日

Veterans and Psychedelics

A transcript for this video is available via YouTube. The transcript and captions are auto-generated and have not been edited.

AI安全与应急管理 · 8月4日

Secure Inference Data Centers: A Vertically Integrated Strategy for Security Engineering

提出"安全推理数据中心"（SIDC）概念——专为AI推理设计的物理隔离设施，防止模型权重泄露

AI反扩散经济模型 · 8月3日

The Economics of AI Counterproliferation: A Stylized Economic Framework

AI能力一旦在前沿被验证，复制成本随硬件改善而下降；反扩散策略需要在"创新速度vs扩散速度"之间寻找平衡点

8月3日

Baby Bumps in the Road: The Impact of Parenthood on Job Performance, Human Capital, and Career Advancement

ResearchPosted on rand.org Aug 3, 2026Published in: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Volume 108, No. 4, pages 914-930 (July 2026). DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01405

8月3日

Physician Experiences in Health System-Owned Practices and Independent Practices: Insights From Interviews With Primary Care Physicians

ResearchPosted on rand.org Aug 3, 2026Published in: The Annals of Family Medicine, Volume 24, Issue 4, pages 329-334 (July/August 2026). DOI: 10.1370/afm.250719

8月3日

Branded Packaging Raises Likelihood of Cigarette Purchasing in an Experimental Retail Setting by Increasing Craving

ResearchPosted on rand.org Aug 3, 2026Published in: Drug and Alcohol Dependence (2026). DOI: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2026.113292

8月3日

Money and the Mind: Financial Well-Being, Mental Health, and Loneliness in a Large Cohort of Emerging Adults

Financial challenges are common during emerging adulthood (ages 18-29) and may have implications for mental health and social relationships. Research with adults more generally indicates that debt and financial distress are associated with a range of poor health and social outcomes. However, most re

8月3日

State Laws Restricting Concealed Handguns in Sensitive Places

ResearchPosted on rand.org Aug 3, 2026Published in: American Journal of Preventive Medicine (2026). DOI: 10.1016/j.amepre.2026.108453

8月3日

Private Equity Ownership in Hospice Care

ResearchPosted on rand.org Aug 3, 2026Published in: American Journal of Hospice and Palliative Medicine® (2026). DOI: 10.1177/10499091261471107

国防与军事后勤 · 8月3日

Unraveling the Complex Logistics in Support of Agile Combat Employment (ACE) Operations in the Indo-Pacific

敏捷战斗部署（ACE）的后勤复杂性分析：分布式作战需要重构供应链

8月3日

Putting Action in Climate Action Plans: How Equity-Centered Goals Are Implemented in California Cities

Many U.S. cities are adopting ambitious climate adaptation and mitigation policies to transition toward greater resilience. Centering the needs of historically marginalized communities is a necessary component of this transition, but implementation of such efforts has often stalled. This study devel

8月3日

Safe to Hire

ResearchPosted on rand.org Aug 3, 2026Published in: Statistics and Public Policy (2026). DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2026.2703028

经济学 · 8月3日

The Composition of Federal R&D Spending and U.S. Productivity Growth

联邦研发支出结构对美国生产率的影响：基础研究占比下降是生产率放缓的原因之一

彼得森国际经济研究所9 篇

关税研究 · 8月3日

Who pays for tariffs? Insights from recent research

PIIE关税研究总结：消费者承担大部分关税成本，而非出口国；与7月"关税无差别打击"主题直接延续

货币与金融 · 8月3日

Will Argentina's gratuitous insults to Brazil compound its economic problems?

In a bid to flex his political muscle and highlight his law-and-order and free-market gospel lauded by President Donald Trump, President Javier Milei of Argentina abruptly appeared at the presidential campaign launch of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in São Paulo in July, creating a diplomatic flap with p

关税研究 · 8月4日

Corporate mentions of Trump's tariffs spiked in spring 2025

企业财报电话会中"关税"提及量在2026年春季飙升——关税已成为企业战略核心变量

PIIEPIIE

8月4日

Years of US tariffs on China have largely failed to reduce dependence on Chinese suppliers

US tariffs on China have changed the routes through which Chinese-made content reaches the US far more than they have reduced US dependence on China. Examining value-added trade flows through 2024 shows that US reliance on Chinese producers has fallen much less than bilateral trade data suggest. Spu

中国经济外溢 · 8月7日

China's property bust is spilling across its borders

中国房地产崩盘正向境外溢出：大宗商品需求下降冲击澳大利亚/巴西/东南亚

8月7日

Mary E. Lovely on how US tariffs have failed to reduce dependence on China

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is an independent nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to strengthening prosperity and human welfare in the global economy through expert analysis and practical policy solutions.